The Lead:
A full field of turf milers are set to square off in the San Francisco Mile during the final season of racing at Golden Gate Fields. The track's signature grass race figures to be an excellent betting affair with 13 entered (including 1 also-eligible) and no distinct favorite. The San Francisco Mile goes as Race 7 with an 8:45 pm ET / 5:45 pm local post time.
Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner AIR FORCE RED has reached the highest level among these, while two others are Grade 3 winners, LAMMAS and BALNIKHOV. Depth includes the likes of Grade 1-placed CATHKIN PEAK as well as the Grade 2-placed duo of ASTRONOMER and SUMTER. This is a familiar and evenly matched cast in terms of class.
Pace:
Sprint speed comes via AIR FORCE RED as well as wide-drawn CLOVISCONNECTION, SUMTER and I'M A GAMBLER. That the 10-11-12 need to get position and possess early foot almost ensures this pace gets hot into the first turn. I'll be relying on finishers.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-IL BELLATOR: Blinkers go on last year's San Francisco Mile third-place finisher and the fear is that early focus, the rail draw and being fresh from a November layoff could send this son of Shackleton right into an already hot pace. If he can stalk like last year off a similar layoff, his chances increase.
#2-LAMMAS: Local synthetic star is 15-29 in the exacta lifetime, but has only 1 turf win to his credit. Matches up well with several familiar rivals in this race and the 1-mile trip suits well on Tapeta. But it's the shippers and turf specialists who may get the best of him.
#3-I'MGONNABESOMBODY: Inconsistent sort can't seem to group any stretch of good efforts together without a misfire and has chased LAMMAS and FREEPORT JOE of late. This field gets tougher and a huge effort would be needed.
#4-BALNIKHOV: Defending San Fran Mile champ returns from his Santa Anita base for elite turf trainer Phil D'Amato. But he's 7: 0-1-1 since last year's victory, trying short and long at both Del Mar and Santa Anita to no avail. D'Amato turns to Geovanni Franco, whom he's had success with to a 27% tune, but notable that Umberto Rispoli and Antonio Fresu opt to stay at Santa Anita (perhaps a sign they don't see a bounce-back either). Pace should help his style if he can muster his old self.
#5-CATHKIN PEAK: Classy sort was third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in 2021, but managed only 7 starts between the '22 and '23 seasons. He's changed hands twice recently for $80,000 claims and is running as fast as ever while capable of the return to the stakes ranks. Dangerous finisher gets a great pace set-up.
#6-AIR FORCE RED: Speedster won the Joe Hernandez sprinting at Santa Anita in 2022, but has lost 6 straight since then and is only 1-for-6 at the mile trip. Leonard Powell sends him from Santa Anita, but couldn't be happy to open the past performances and see so much other front-end interest.
#7-ASTRONOMER: Disastrous 0-22 run in 2024 for trainer Simon Callaghan isn't any fault of this gelding who has been away since November. Pace player nearly wired the City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and was beaten only 5-3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Mile. He's shown the ability to press-and-pounce, needed here, but concern that his debut and his '23 return from layoff hint that he may not be anywhere near his best when fresh.
#8-COALINGA ROAD: California-bred must snap a 6-race losing streak, but its 12-24 in the exacta lifetime and hits a very interesting spot in his form cycle. Carla Gaines send him north while second off the layoff and going sprint-to-route at the same time, an old school pattern that I love. The bullet workout April 13 at Santa Anita indicates the plan may be coming together and local leading jockey Assael Espinoza rides. Beware.
#9-FREEPORT JOE: On a first-name basis with LAMMAS and I'MGONNABESOMEBODY after 8 common matchups in his last 9 starts. Form indicates he's far superior on Tapeta than turf, though he was only beaten 3 lengths in this race last year when seventh and should get a much faster pace this time to help his cause.
#10-CLOVISCONNECTION: Multiple stakes-winning sprinter did win routing at Santa Rosa on turf, but got away with the opening 6 furlongs in a dawdling 1:12 that day. Don't expect that luxury, and the wide draw hurts his stamina chances. Hard to dislike a horse who has won 7 of 11, but the race shape works against him.
#11-SUMTER: Richard Mandella trainee has had trouble finishing deals in SoCal when around 2 turns when facing tougher. The class relief will help that some, but the best races for him are on the lead or battling for it, and that's a crowded space. From post 11, he almost has to fire early or lose ground.
#12-I'M A GAMBLER: Flat late around 2 turns, but unable to rally enough in sprints, this in-betweener can't seem to find the right home for Mark Glatt. The barn has been on a great, extended run, but the move north for this spot feels a bit like an admission that they can't seem to find anything that's worked. He's 0-8 in the US and drawn tough.
#13 (AE)-PRINCE ABU DHABI: Win machine is 6-8 lifetime, but only 1 bid came on turf and resulted in a third-place finish in the Alcatraz Stakes. If he draws into the field, he'll be left with a wide draw, but I like the form cycle similar to that of COALINGA ROAD in this spot. Not without some intrigue if in, but demand a fair price from the post at 10-1 or more.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CATHKIN PEAK is exceptionally consistent and will appreciate the early speed setting the table.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
COALINGA ROAD should be in the 8-1 to 12-1 range even with top pilot Espinoza aboard.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 win COALINGA ROAD. $25 exacta box COALINGA ROAD and CATHKIN PEAK ($50).
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